| January, 2002 Volume 5, Issue 1 _______________________ ![]() |
A Team Boston
Newsletter |
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| The Year Ahead 2002 | ||
Inside this issue:
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As always, we like to dedicate our first monthly edition of
the Sun to emerging trends for the New Year. The following are the top 10 trends as
forecasted by the Trend Letter, Stanford University, The Gartner Group, AOE Wave
LLC and MIT. Thinking about whats important will be a recurring theme in the year ahead, which will also be characterized as a year of recovery. We will experience a long, slow return to normalcy, although "normal" may be redefined. Now we know that terrorism can strike in the United States; it can strike anywhere. The year 2002 will also be one of recovery and reflection. Millions of people will join millions of others already wondering whether we have embraced technology too much, and if it might not be time to consider a greater balance between technology and humanity. When the terrorists struck, technology helped in the physical recovery, but people helped with the emotional recovery. That balance will continue to instruct us.
The United States response to the September 11 terrorist attack and the lukewarm support received from some Middle Eastern countries reminded the world once again of its dependence on the region for a steady supply of oil. The reminder wasnt necessary. We already learned from Californias electric utility deregulation debacle that power disruptionseven the fear of disruption-upset the economy. Add in the worlds growing realization that Earths resources are finite, and there exist powerful motivating forces to shift from a dependence on fossil fuels to greater reliance on alternative renewable energy sources. Renewable resources such as solar, hydro, wind, geothermal and nuclear will get a new lease on life as the technology improves, costs come down and concern lingers that dependence on fossil fuels is foolhardy. Within the decade, fuel cells will power everything from buses and automobiles to consumer electronics. Non-polluting and rechargeable, fuel cells could potentially power an entire countrys economic future. Iceland has plans to move forward with its plan to become the first hydrogen-based economy. Others will follow.
Light-emitting plastics could help make products such as computer monitors thin enough to roll up like a newspaper, giving new meaning to the concept of portable electronics. But thats not all plastics can do. Electro active plastics change shape when stimulated by an electrical charge. NASAs Jet Propulsion Laboratory is working on an artificial arm made of electro active plastics. Earlier this year, scientists at the University of Illinois, Champaign-Urbana produced self-healing plastic that functions much like human skin. When scratched, cut or bruised, the plastic generates new "skin" to make the injuries disappear. The plastic can "heal" over an over again, thus extending the life expectancy as much as four times of any product it becomes a part of. Elsewhere, researchers are working on plastics that change shape in response to the environment. Newer "intelligent plastics" might help make cloth that changes color or warms when the temperature drops. Intelligent wet suits would pull body heat from a diver, store it and release warmth as needed to maintain a constant temperature. |
Plastic buses and featherweight composite cars soon will
drive on plastic highways and across plastic bridges. Plastic makes vehicles lighter
stronger, more durable and more energy-efficient. Plastic also is turning up in construction materials. Pure plastic lumber now is used in railroad ties, in bridge construction and by do-it-yourselfers who use it in fencing, decking, shutters, trim and other home-repair projects. Builders one day will install smart windows that can adjust to the amount of light that comes through. But researchers hold out the greatest hope for a future in which the material of life, DNA, can be manipulated to form computer components, ushering in an era when the organic and the inorganic converge.
Motivated by economic advantages, businesses around the world will push harder than ever to reduce waste through reuse, remanufacture and recycling. Companies everywhere are discovering the cost benefits of using recycled materials in product manufacturing and selling waste materials to others for reuse. Responsible environmental stewardship is not just a good idea, its a good business development strategy. In survey after survey, growing numbers of consumers respond that the degree to which a company supports social causes influences consumer purchase decisions. "Cause marketing," as its known, creates an emotional bond between consumer and company, which translates into repeat sales-the bread and butter of most businesses.
4. From Strategic Planning to Strategic Patenting 2002 will prove a pivotal year for a number of Industries in which holding a patent translates into market dominance. Public opinion will prompt companies to release financial claims to patents on components of commonly used technologies and pharmaceutical formulations able to reduce the impact of devastating health epidemics such as AIDS. A "common good" tenet will arise and become the standard for relinquishing patent rights.
5. From Stock Options to Job Security Employers in the developed world face a potential crisis: an aging work force. In Europe between 1995 and 2015, the number of workers age 50 to 64 will grow by 25%, or 16.5 million. Many of those workers will retire, creating an age related brain drain in many companies, particularly old economy industrial companies. According to one study, the automobile industry could lose 40% of its workforce between 1995 and 2003. The retirement crisis is particularly acute in old-line industrial companies that increased productivity through new technology not by hiring younger workers and those that lost younger workers through downsizing. But the problem will hit new-economy companies as well. Not only will retiring workers create vacancies in almost every industry, but they will also take with them years of accumulated knowledge. In the year ahead, every organization will have to rethink its retirement policies and, in some cases, make extraordinary concessions for older workers as they struggle to pass on to the next generation the expertise and corporate intelligence gathered over a lifetime.
As it turns out, unlocking the secrets of life will require the scientific community to shift its focus from genomics to proteomics, the study of proteins. Human beings have only a few thousand more genes than fleas, roundworms and mice, but we have tens of thousands of proteins: many more than any other living organism. |
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